AI Overview fan-out rankings boost citation odds by 161%: Study
Pages that rank for Google’s AI Overview “fan-out” queries are much more likely to be cited than those that rank only for the main search query, according to data from Surfer SEO.
- An analysis of 10,000 keywords found a strong correlation (Spearman 0.77) between how many fan-out queries a page ranks for and its likelihood of being cited in Google’s AI Overviews.
By the numbers. Pages ranking for fan-out queries are 161% more likely to be cited than pages ranking only for the main query. Also:
- 76% of the sampled keywords triggered AI Overviews.
- 33,000 fan-out queries were extracted using Gemini.
- Pages ranking for both the main query and at least one fan-out accounted for 51% of AI Overview citations.
- Pages ranking only for the main query accounted for just under 20%.
Fan-outs beat the main query. Ranking for fan-out queries is 49% more likely to earn a citation than ranking for the head term alone. When Google AI Overviews cited organic results:
- About 20% cited pages that ranked only for the main query.
- About 30% cited pages that ranked only for fan-out queries.
Most AI Overview citations don’t rank. About 68% of cited pages didn’t rank in the top 10 of Google for either the main query or any fan-out query. Among the top three visible citations, that share drops to about 46%.
Yes, but. As always, correlation is not causation. Also:
- Ranking for fan-out queries does not guarantee an AI Overview citation.
- Fan-outs vary by user context and personalization, with only about 27% remaining consistent across repeated runs.
- Traditional SEO alone does not fully explain how citations are selected.
Why we care. If you want to be cited in Google AI Overviews, don’t chase fan-out queries. Own the topic. Surfer SEO recommends building deep topical coverage around core subjects, publishing content that naturally answers a wide range of related questions, and letting AI Overviews discover your relevance across different fan-outs.
