Google Search traffic decline is inevitable, execs say

/dans
Google Gemini robots

Calling it “inevitable,” Google executives expect Search to lose traffic to Gemini or rival AI answer engine ChatGPT, according to an internal document from October.

Why we care. Google generated nearly $200 billion in revenue from Search in 2024. However, Google launched many new AI features and products (e.g., AI Overviews, AI Mode, Gemini) in the past two years that have radically changed search as we’ve known it for more than two decades. Now it’s confirmed that Google executives think it’s “inevitable” that Google will lose search traffic due to AI.

ChatGPT’s impact. An internal summary of takeaways from a meeting with top execs – including Liz Reid, Vidhya Srinivasan, and Nick Fox – included this key point from Fox:

  • “We have 3 options: (1) Search doesn’t erode, (2) we lose Search traffic to Gemini, (3) we lose Search traffic to ChatGPT. (1) is preferred but the worst case is (3) so we should support (2)”

‘Writing is on the wall.’ Although Google wasn’t losing any Search or Ad traffic at this time, Srinivasan felt that it was an inevitability, so Google should “prepare for Gemini’s success.” She apparently used the phrase “writing is on the wall” about Search losing traffic to Gemini.

  • Srinivasan wanted to “accelerate monetizing Gemini with Ads ASAP.” (Sure enough, during Alphabet’s Q1 earnigns call, we heard about the potential of Gemini as an ad platform.)
  • Srinivasan and others discussed the creation of a “connected strategy” for “when Gemini should kick back to Search” and building out “Shopping solutions.”

The document. Google document: Notes_follow-ups on 25-Oct Ads Stats (Oct. 25, 2024)